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BDM Direct - Boutique Development & Marketing

Is the sky falling?

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Anissa Cavallo
Anissa Cavallo
Managing Director

 

Dear Ellen,

Chicken Little thought the sky was falling when an acorn fell on his head. In his panic to warn the town he did an awful lot of damage. Sound familiar? Many financial commentators are sitting on the fence but other vocal members of the community have been very clear about the dire state of our financial position. This has caused havoc amongst consumers and advisers who are too scared to make a move.

In this month’s edition of Bout Up we ask the people that really matter, financial advisers, if it is indeed the end of the world and what we should be doing to prepare or take advantage of the current circumstances. Next month we will ask the other people that really matter - the investors!

Also this month special guest Geoff Watkins, of Adviser Edge, takes us through recent structured product disasters to determine what went wrong (if anything). Finally our new regular Mark Davies adds to his very popular Armageddon theory by applying it to the recent market rally. 

NEWS FLASH – WA open for business:    We are very proud to welcome Andrew Kuruc to the BDM Direct team. He will be heading up the new Western Australian office and looking after advisers in the West and Northern Territory. Please contact him directly on his mobile if you would like to learn more…0407 915 946

Geoff Watkins
Head of Structured Products Adviser Edge
STRUCTURED PRODUCTS FAILED to do what they never could have done

Many popular structured products from the past years are sitting under water. Our ‘capital’ doesn’t feel very ‘protected’ now that most of them aren’t making money for us and if we close them out it
will actually cost us money. As the share market finally shows some signs of life and old simple managed equity funds roar back into life, there are a lot of capital protected structured products
that have left it all behind and are just invested in a bond or a term deposit or whatever the product issuer calls it. And doing no more or no less than they ever were set up to do.

So far there have been no bankruptcies of the banks providing the capital protection on sale in Australia, so the products are still on track to give investors the 100% of capital back at the maturity
date. A great investment to brag about it isn’t, but it isn’t Armageddon either. If the equity markets had continued to rise, the structured products would have continued to make good returns. Those popular products were almost all designed for a bull market, and bullish investors. The structured products that would have produced good returns when equities fell just weren’t very easy to sell, back then.

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Mark Davies and James Clement
JM Financial Group
ARMAGEDDON DEFENSIVES VS CYCLICALS

The recent share market rally of the last two weeks (All Ords 14.3%, S&P 20%) has inspired people to speculate that this bounce may lead us on the inevitable road to recovery that will return to markets and economies one day. While it is difficult to say for sure that this is the start of the next great bull run, many commentators do believe that we are unlikely, in this cycle, to see the lows experienced at the start of March.

In our last article for BDM Direct we discussed the Armageddon model and how we looked at pricing shares based on peak to trough analysis.  If in fact we have seen the lows of this current cycle, the model proves even more valuable in assessing what shares look attractive on a valuation basis, the Armageddon price that might be achieved if you get price/earnings multiple expansion on an expected recovery, and base case dividend yield assumptions.

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Chris Heyworth
The Pentad Group
THE SKY IS FALLING (NOT) – what went wrong and what to do about it....

The media is a hub of negative sentiment because bad news sells. Certainly the media has been particularly critical of the financial status and future of Australia and Australians. So is it our own obsession with other people’s misfortune that is pushing the market lower and lower? Who knows! The fact is we are hearing many people, who are NOT at the frontline, argue that the world is over; and the readers are lapping it up.

So it’s time to find out whether or not they are correct by reaching out to some people that live, breath and sleep the “financial crisis” - Craig Hughes (Genesys Financial Planning), Chris Heyworth (Pentad Group) and Brian Willet (Private Wealth) answer our questions about the current economy.

1.      Do you feel that the financial world as we know it is   ending?

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